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2022 presidential elections in Africa. What can we anticipate?
By Polls Africa
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Five presidential elections are scheduled to take place in Africa in 2022. While those in Kenya and Angola are high stakes polls given the size of the countries’ economies, those in Mali and Libya are equally important for the stability of the two countries. Libya has been war-torn for years now while Mali is yet to settle politically after a coup d’état in 2021.
In Summary
2022 just like 2021 will be a dynamic period of maneuvering by key actors seeking to advance not only their individual interests, but also their vision for the future of their countries—and governance norms for the continent as a whole.
More countries held presidential elections in 2021 than will in 2022. Last year’s polls ranged from the dramatic in Uganda and Somalia – the latter never happened – to a run-off in Niger which saw the ruling party candidate Mohamed Bazoum win, to the uncertain ones in Ethiopia and Libya, the smooth ones in Zambia and Cape Verde as well as the unique marble polling in The Gambia. All were largely peaceful bar Uganda.
2022 Presidential Elections in Africa
Country
Election date
Libya
January
Mali
February
Kenya
August
Angola
August
Somaliland
November
Libya; the long wait continues
Elections previously planned for December 2018 were moved to 2019 and later December 2021. The delays were thanks to a military offensive by Libyan National Army (LNA) to take control of the capital Tripoli from the Government of National Accord (GNA) in April 2019. The elections are intended to consist of presidential and parliamentary polls with a new proposed date of 24 January. The run-up, as is the case with other years has been marked by disputes over eligibility of candidates and security fears. Will Libya finally have elections this year? Once again, nobody knows.
Mali; delayed transition to civilian rule
After a coup d’état in May 2021 led by the then Vice President Assimi Goïta, the military junta announced that new elections would be held on 27 February 2022 as per the election plan put in place by the deposed government. In December however, Goïta’s interim government proposed holding elections in 2026. Under its plan, a constitutional referendum would be held in 2023 and legislative elections in 2025. A presidential election would not take place until 2026.
This statement has been deemed unacceptable by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) of which Mali is a member. ECOWAS has consequently responded by agreeing to impose sanctions with immediate effect. These include closure of borders with Mali, suspension of non-essential financial transactions, freezing of Malian state assets in ECOWAS commercial banks and recalling their ambassadors from Bamako. The pressure in on for the coup leaders to hold elections by February as previously anticipated.
Besides Mali’s political upheavals, the country is also facing Islamist insurgents in the Sahel region that stretches across Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso. An al-Qaeda affiliate nearly overrun Bamako in 2013 were it not for a quick offensive by France.
The Sahel Region
Image source: BBC.
Angola; greater political liberalization
The incumbent president João Lourenço will again be a candidate in the August 2022 presidential elections. President Lourenço of the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) which has ruled Angola for 46 years is eligible for one more term of 5 years. Lourenço came to power in 2017 on a promise of allowing greater political liberalization, fighting corruption and diversifying Angola’s economy away from its dependence on minerals, mainly oil revenues.
His anti-corruption campaign consistently made headlines in the first term as he recovered $3 billion stolen from the country’s sovereign wealth fund and other assets appropriated by the family and allies of his predecessor, former President José Eduardo Dos Santos. While his drive has been admired globally and hailed for its boldness, opposition parties have accused the MPLA government of repression and several contraventions of the 2010 constitution in relation to political freedoms.
For a country that emerged from 4 decades of civil war to become one of the world’s fastest growing economies in the first decade of the 21st century, the success of democracy in Angola cannot be overvalued. The political process around the elections as well as its outcome will therefore be critical and interesting to follow.
Kenya; restoring lost incomes
Kenyans will be voting for a new president on 9 August, with the incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta completing his second and last 5-year term. In the nearly 10 years of Kenyatta’s government, Kenya has emerged as one of the most indebted countries in Africa. When Kenyatta came to power in 2013, public debt stood at 42% of GDP. It’s today at 72% of GDP and growing.Â
The big infrastructure debts were justified as transformative in creating jobs and boosting the economy in the long run. Corruption around funds borrowed for these projects as well as those for Covid-19 cushion programs means the country has nothing to show for it.
It’s this reality of lost income for many that has shaped the 2022 elections, with prospective candidates campaigning on a promise of an economic turnaround. Of these, the front runners are the deputy president William Ruto who fell out with the president and Raila Odinga the official opposition leader who since 2018 has been working hand in hand with Kenyatta.
Kenya has a recent history of violent and contested polls, which will definitely make this one of the most intensely following elections.
Map source: Polls Africa.
Somaliland; building faith in institutions
Presidential elections are expected to be held in Somaliland sometime in last quarter of 2022. The Republic of Somaliland is a de facto sovereign state in the Horn of Africa that proclaimed its independence from the Somali Republic in 1991. While it is yet to be internationally recognized as a sovereign state, it has intensely been pursuing international acknowledgment and drawing allies on its side.
Somaliland has distinguished itself with peaceful and transparent presidential elections in the past – 2003, 2010 and 2017 – in great contrast to its neighbour Somalia which is still unable to hold elections long after they were set to be held in 2021. It’s notable to mention that the long overdue parliamentary and local elections held on 31 May 2021 were won by the opposition, revealing the growing strength of Somaliland’s democratic culture.
Incumbent President Muse Bihi Abdi of the Kulmiye Peace, Unity and Development Party is eligible to seek a second term of 5 years. He is yet to declare his candidacy. Events leading to the 2022 polls are crucial in preventing democratic erosion and protecting Somaliland’s electoral track record and achievements this far.
Against erosion of democracy
As well put by Danielle Resnick, a David M. Rubenstein Fellow for Global Economy and Development, the outcome of the 2022 elections will significantly impact prospects for reversing democratic erosion, the extent to which civil society and countervailing institutions can keep leaders accountable, and the future range of tactics that incumbents employ to retain power. For all countries, the test will be to uphold the presidential terms limits, conduct peaceful and credible elections and for some, predictability with respect to election calendars.
We will be watching and analyzing the processes in our upcoming articles and events as voters head to the ballot.