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2021 presidential elections in Africa. What can we anticipate?
By Polls Africa
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15 presidential elections are set to be held in Africa in 2021. The test will be upholding terms limits, conducting peaceful and credible elections and for some countries, becoming predictable with respect to election calendars. In this publication we give an overview of what to expect.
In Summary
The view by Africa Center for Strategic Studies on 2020 elections can be applied to this year to suggest that 2021 will be a dynamic period of maneuvering by key actors seeking to advance not only their individual interests, but also their vision for the future of their countries and governance norms for the continent as a whole.
The dramatic
Uganda
Ugandans will be the first Africans to vote this year to elect their president on 14 January. 76-year-old President Yoweri Museveni, in power now for 36 years, is seeking reelection. Events leading to have seen violence, loss of lives, arrests and reported harassment of supporters of the opposition led by the main challenger Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine, an artist-turned-politician. Bobi Wine draws support from Ugandas who want to replace Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) party.
Bobi Wine could be one of the most arrested presidential candidates in Uganda, an experience shared with former Ugandan opposition candidate Kizza Besigye. Bobi Wine has alleged plans by NRM to rig elections and has encouraged his supporters to resist.
“But all I can assure you is that we shall protest any injustice, we shall protest any illegalities and any irregularities,” Bobi Wine.
Museveni is firmly in the club of longest serving African presidents among them Paul Biya of Cameroun (38 years), Denis Sassou Nguesso of Congo (36 years) and Teodoro Obiang Nguema of Equatorial Guinea (41 years). Like his counterparts, he is still in power thanks to suppression of political opposition and constitutional amendments scrapping presidential term limits (2005) and the presidential age limit (2017).
2020 Presidential elections in Africa
Country
Election Date
Uganda
January
Somalia
February
Djibouti
February
Niger
February (run-off)
Republic of Congo
March
Cape Verde
March
Chad
April
Benin
April
Ethiopia
June
São Tomé & PrÃncipe
July
Zambia
August
Morocco
September
South Sudan
December
The Gambia
December
Libya
December
Somalia
Initially elections were to be held in 2020 but have been delayed due to among others the Covid-19 global pandemic and famine brought about by desert locust invasion. The main reason however has been quarrel over what model of election to hold. At the start was a plan for direct parliamentary elections. President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed even signed legislation in February 2020 giving all citizens the right to vote in parliamentary elections.
In September however, the President and five regional leaders agreed to adapt a revised indirect election procedure. President Mohamed term ends on 8 February and National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) has set the same date for elections.
The run-off
Niger
The uncertain ones
Ethiopia
Libya
Elections previously planned for December 2018 were moved to 2019 before the current schedule of 24 December 2021. The delays came about after a military offensive by Libyan National Army to take control of the capital Tripoli from the Government of National Accord (GNA) in April 2019. The elections are intended to consist of presidential and parliamentary elections. Will Libya finally have elections this year? It’s too early to tell.
The certain
Zambia
Come 12 August 2021, President Edgar Chagwa Lungu of the Patriotic Front (PF) party will be seeking reelection for a second term 5-year term. The President is elected by the two-round system and Lungu will be hoping to avoid a run-off after barely scrapping a victory in the 2016 general election, winning by 50.3%.
Zambia, Africa’s second largest copper producer, is grappling with mounting debt and late last year announced a suspension of $120 million in interest payments to its Eurobond holders for 6 months. Economic slump will be the major issue as the country, which has a reputation of having relatively peaceful elections in the past, goes to polls.
Cape Verde
Officially the Republic of Cabo Verde, this island country in the central Atlantic Ocean rarely makes elections headlines largely because of a stable record over the years. Cape Verde is among the most democratic nations in Africa, ranking 26th in the world, according to the 2018 Democracy Index. President Jorge Carlos Fonseca of the Movement for Democracy (MpD) is competing his second 5-year term and will be retiring.
The Gambia
Presidential elections will be held on 4 December 2021. The Gambia has an interesting single round by first-past-the-post voting system of electing its president for a five-year term. Instead of using paper ballots, elections are conducted using marbles. Each voter receives a marble and places it in a tube on top of a sealed drum that corresponds to that voter’s favoured candidate.
Before the coup d’état in July 1994 that brought former president Yahya A.J.J. Jammeh to power, The Gambia was one of the oldest existing multi-party democracies in Africa. The country is rebuilding its democracy after the 1 December 2016 elections which were won by Adama Barrow of Coalition 2016. President Barrow will be seeking reelection for a successive 5-year term.
Unending presidential terms
Chad
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Chad on 10 April 2021. 68-year-old President Idriss Déby of the Patriotic Salvation Movement party will be running for a sixth term. Déby came to power through a revolution in 1990. In changes made to the electoral system in 1996, the President is elected to a 5-year term using a two-round system. Déby is expected to win again in April and it remains anyone’s guess whether there will be more changes post-2021, that will allow him to run again after the end of his next term.
Congo
Retiring presidents
Out of the 15 or so elections set for 2021 in the continent, two are in countries whose presidents will be retiring. Presidents Jorge Carlos Fonseca of Cape Verde and Mahamadou Issoufou of Niger are completing their second terms and in accordance with their constitutions, will be stepping down.Â
While it was expected for Cape Verde whose political environment is stable, President Issoufou has particularly been applauded for his decision not to stand, paving way for the first peaceful political transition in Niger since independence.
5 longest serving presidents in Africa
Teodoro Obiang Nguema
Equatorial Guinea
Paul Biya
Denis Sassou Nguesso
Yoweri Museveni
Idriss Déby
Is democracy flourishing in Africa?
While it would be pleasant to write that democracy is becoming entrenched in Africa, the actuality is it’s a mixed bag for the continent. On the one hand we have countries like Kenya, Ghana, Malawi, Niger where respect for the constitution is observable. On the other hand, are countries that seem to be failing the test of credibility and peace for example Uganda while in others, controversial constitutional changes have become a favourite walk-around to extend time in power. Ivory Coast, Togo, Chad are prime examples.
The view by Africa Center for Strategic Studies on 2020 elections in Africa applies to this year to suggest that 2021 will be a dynamic period of maneuvering by key actors seeking to advance not only their individual interests, but also their vision for the future of their countries and governance norms for the continent as a whole.