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Somalia Presidential Election, February 8
Joseph Siegle & Candance Cook
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Somalia’s presidential elections were originally planned for December 2020 but were pushed back for logistical reasons and disputes regarding the oversight process. The Federal Government, led by President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed (commonly known as Farmajo), and the five Federal Member States (FMS) agreed in September 2020 to jointly appoint an Electoral Commission and Dispute Resolution Committee.
In Summary
“The elections reflect the challenge of fusing local clan and regional interests for autonomy within a larger national vision and policy framework.”
Ongoing disagreements on these selections may result in further delays. Consequently, just reaching an understanding on an equitable system may be as impactful as the results of Somalia’s 2021 elections.
Vulnerable system
Under Somalia’s current indirect electoral system, each of the country’s 275 parliamentarians will be elected by 101 delegates nominated by clan elders. These members of parliament, as well as 59 senators elected by state assemblies, will then select the president.
This system of indirect election has been widely criticized as subject to delegate vote buying with seats going for up to $1 million each. The system is also seen as vulnerable to al-Shabaab’s influence on selecting delegates via financial incentives or through the sympathies of some clan leaders.
A joint session of the bicameral parliament elects the president.
Criticism of the system
- Intimidation
- Vote buying
- Fraud
- Hard to find consensus
The need for universal suffrage “one person, one vote” elections in the future is being pushed by reformers but it requires consensual road map and definite timelines.
The process has been a target of reformers who have pushed to have the president elected through universal suffrage, promoted as “one person, one vote.”
Farmajo is running for a second four-year term, and the difficulty of agreeing on a process highlights the low levels of trust the FMS have that the Farmajo government is committed to a free and fair process. The disagreement has forged greater cooperation of leading opposition parties under the Forum of National Parties.
The opposition
Key to the success of any agreement will be overcoming Somalia’s winner-take-all political culture that fosters a posture of domineering leaders at the expense of a coalition-building approach based on power-sharing.
The legitimacy of Somalia’s electoral process is closely tied to its prospects for stability. A process deemed fair and valid by the FMS and the public more generally will facilitate more cohesion, reducing the risk of internal conflict. It will also create a stronger base from which to address the regions’ varying claims of autonomy. A more legitimate and accountable political structure can also contribute to a more effective security force by strengthening the commitment to the federal cause.
The problem of insecurity
Security remains the overarching tableau for Somalia’s 2021 elections. Al Shabaab was linked to an estimated 2,100 violent events and 3,390 reported fatalities in 2020, making it the most active and, arguably, most entrenched militant Islamist group in Africa. In addition to the possible disruptions to voting, al Shabaab remains in control over large swathes of the countryside.
Contenders, February 8 Presidential Election
Ruling Party
– Tayo Political Party
Main Players:
Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmajo),
President of Somalia (2017- present)
Former Prime Minister of Somalia (2010-2011)
Incumbent, running for a second four year term
Philosophy: Strong central government
Backers: Qatar, Turkey
Opposition
Forum for National Parties (Coalition of 6 opposition parties)
- Himilo Qaran
- Union for Peace and Development Party
- Ilays Party
- National Progressive Party
- Peace Party
- Kulan Party
Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, former president (2009-2012)
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, former president (2012-2016),
Ali Khaire, former prime minister under Farmajo, sacked in 2020
Philosophy: Decentralized clan-based power sharing
Backers: United Arab Emirates
Somalia’s electoral process must also navigate the growing competition for influence by Gulf actors. Qatar and Turkey have been strong supporters of Farmajo and the federal government, while the UAE has backed the FMS.
This regional competition for influence in Somalia (and with it, greater leverage over Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden networks of ports and trade) further elevates the pressure on Somalia’s already fractious political system.
Growing tensions between the federal government and Kenya over border demarcations—and potential oil reserves—in the Indian Ocean, as well as security measures along the bordering lower Jubaaland, add to the mix of regional factors that have stakes in the outcome of the 2021 elections.
Somalia’s electoral process therefore must be understood within its larger interlocking state-building context. The elections reflect the challenge of fusing local clan and regional interests for autonomy within a larger national vision and policy framework.
They also reflect Somalia’s geographic importance in the Horn of Africa and as an epicenter for violent extremism in East Africa. The elections and resulting leadership, therefore, have far-reaching security implications for Somalia and the broader region.
Joseph Siegle is Research Director and Candace Cook is Research Assistant at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.