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Kenya prepares for succession from President Uhuru Kenyatta
By Joseph Siegle and Candace Cook
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The headline of Kenya’s presidential elections is the forthcoming succession from President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is stepping down after two terms in office. The elections, therefore, represent an important inflection point in Kenya’s democratic development and renewal. Despite challenges of ethnic violence and allegations of vote rigging over the years, Kenya has a history of competitive elections and has been an outspoken defender of upholding democratic norms in the region.
In Summary
This vulnerability of the Kenyan political process is perpetuated by the organization of political parties around ethnicity and personality rather than ideology.
Democratic evolution
Kenya’s democratic evolution is owed, in no small part, to the growing independence of the judiciary, which has emerged as a critical check on the executive branch. This was seen in the rejection of election results due to irregularities in vote tallying in the 2017 presidential contest, requiring a rerun.
The judiciary also played an instrumental role in rejecting the proposed Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) that would have revised the constitution to expand the scope of the executive branch, a move that many in civil society saw as a threat to the progressive 2010 constitution and its provisions for more inclusive and accountable government in Kenya.
Chairman of Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC)
The leading candidates
Among a crowded field of candidates, the leading contenders are shaping up to be Vice President William Ruto and perennial challenger, Raila Odinga. While Ruto had been Kenyatta’s running mate for the past two elections, Kenyatta has endorsed Odinga, the leading contender in the 2017 election. The effect has been a topsy-turvy recasting of political alliances and injection of considerable unpredictability in the outcome.
At the front of many Kenyans’ minds is the risk of political violence that has accompanied many recent presidential elections, notably the 2007 contest that resulted in an estimated 1,200 fatalities and 650,000 displaced. This violence has, at times, taken on ethnic overtones, a result of the polarization and stoking of animosities. A key issue to watch in 2022, therefore, is what efforts leading candidates, parties, and national and neighborhood level peacebuilding groups make to mitigate potential violence during this cycle.
Vulnerability of the Kenyan political process
This vulnerability of the Kenyan political process is perpetuated by the organization of political parties around ethnicity and personality rather than ideology, heightening perceptions of what is at stake. It has also perpetuated a seeming stasis of leading presidential candidates from election to election, handicapping prospects for more reformist candidates. That said, neither Ruto nor Odinga are Kikuyu, Kenya’s largest ethnic group, portending a shift in ethnic alliances, regardless of who emerges victorious.
Kenyan politics have also been buffeted by a rise in domestic disinformation campaigns in recent years. The most high-profile of these well-organized campaigns—aimed at the justices who struck down the disputed 2017 elections, the BBI, and the Pandora Papers exposé—seem intended to confuse citizens over what is true, thereby muting outrage and collective action.
This has impacted public trust in Kenyan political leaders. Along with the perceived elite domination of the political process and corruption, this has resulted in declining public enthusiasm for the elections. Kenya’s Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has struggled to increase voter registrations. Disinterest is particularly high among youth, who may not hold much hope for change regardless of which candidate wins. Given that 75 percent of Kenya’s 48 million people are under 35, this disconnect represents an important challenge facing all candidates.
Regional importance
Beyond the modelling benefit that a fair and legitimating electoral process in Kenya can have for strengthening democratic norms in the region, the Kenyan elections also have important regional security implications. Kenya has the region’s most dynamic economy and has been a bulwark of stability in a neighborhood facing an array of security challenges—al Shabaab in Somalia, South Sudan’s ongoing instability, heightened political repression in Uganda and Tanzania, and the devastating civil war in Ethiopia—many of which have governance drivers. A solid election in Kenya, accordingly, will be felt far beyond its borders.
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This article first appeared on www.africacenter.org and has been published with full permission. Joseph Siegle is Research Director and Candace Cook is Research Assistant at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.