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Angola elections: President João Lourenço and MPLA eye another win
By Joseph Siegle, Candace Cook
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The ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) has maintained continuous control over Angolan politics since 1975 and appears intent on ensuring this remains the case after the 2022 elections when strongman President João Lourenço stands for a second term.
In Summary
Vote counting for the 2022 polls is to be done centrally rather than at the local level, defying electoral best practice.
Angola general elections
August 24 2022
The MPLA is systematically pursuing this objective through a series of ham-handed maneuvers maximizing its control over state structures. Through its deep influence over the courts, the MPLA has challenged the selection of new opposition leaders, namely Costa Júnior of UNITA and Abel Chivukuvuku of PRA-JÁ Servir Angola.
Citing the pandemic, the MPLA has not held local elections for over 3 years, denying the opposition momentum prior to the presidential elections. (The opposition currently controls roughly a third of the seats in the National Assembly, despite allegations of widespread irregularities benefitting the MPLA during the 2017 vote count).
Under a curious formulation, even the composition of the National Electoral Commission (CNE) is stipulated to be proportional to the party representation in the legislature, thereby institutionalizing bias and perpetuating the influence of the ruling party.
The term limit question
By forcing constitutional revisions through the MPLA-dominated legislature, vote counting for the 2022 polls is to be done centrally rather than at the local level, defying electoral best practice, thereby reducing oversight and accountability of these tallies. Civil society leaders are also concerned that Lourenço will use the constitutional revisions as justification for resetting the term limit clock.
While the MPLA’s control over the institutional architecture may succeed in maintaining its stranglehold over Angolan politics, this is not a sustainable strategy for the country more generally.
The frontrunners
An economy on the decline
Angola has experienced 6 years of economic contraction despite its abundance of natural resources. It owes $40 billion of foreign debt (with an annual GDP of $63 billion), of which half is to China.
Prices of food and other basic goods have been rising. Perceptions of corruption continue to be among the highest in the world. The combination of political and economic frustrations has led to a series of antigovernment protests in Luanda, which have been forcefully put down by the Angolan security forces using live ammunition.
Expectations
In short, what could be one of the most consequential elections on the continent—signaling a commitment to genuine reform, more inclusive political participation, and respect for the rule of law—is likely to be little more than a formality.
References.
This article first appeared on www.africacenter.org and has been published with full permission. Joseph Siegle is Research Director and Candace Cook is Research Assistant at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
Images courtesy of Observador and Maka Angola.