Zambia has about 22 million people, Africa's second largest copper output after the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and a government that has just won a second term. Inflation is 6.3%, the central bank has cut its rate to 10.75%, and a new three-year IMF programme is waiting for board approval. The catch is a power system that depends on one drought-prone river, a debt restructuring that is not quite finished, and mining rules that have changed more than once. Here is what the data says, where the openings are, and what to check before you commit.
This guide is for companies setting up or expanding in Zambia. For the wider economy see Zambia's economy in figures.
For copper and the businesses that serve it, yes, with care. The economy is steadier than it was two years ago: inflation fell from 15% in 2024 to 6.3%, the central bank cut its rate in September, the kwacha has held near 20 per dollar, and the IMF agreed terms on a new programme in October. The government won a second term in August 2026 and has signalled continuity. The weak points are the power supply, a debt restructuring that is still being finished, and a record of changing mining taxes and export rules at short notice. Investors who can carry power and policy risk are moving in. Those who need a fixed rulebook are watching.
Default. Zambia became the first African country to default in the pandemic era, and started a restructuring of its external debt.
Bondholder deal. Zambia reached agreement in principle with its Eurobond holders, in line with its IMF programme.
Drought and blackouts. Kariba's usable water fell to about 13%, load shedding reached 12 hours a day in May 2024, and mines on the Copperbelt cut output. GDP growth fell to 3.8%.
Kansanshi expansion. First Quantum declared commercial production at its $1.2 billion S3 expansion at Kansanshi.
First IMF programme ends. The IMF Board completed the sixth and final review of the 2022 programme, bringing disbursements to about $1.7 billion. Debt is judged sustainable but at high risk of distress.
Bond buyback. Zambia bought back its $1.36 billion 2053 Eurobond, part-funded by a $600 million African Development Bank loan. Fitch said the tender was not a distressed exchange.
Election. President Hichilema won a second term with about 60% of the vote, and was sworn in on 1 September. Observers called the vote free and transparent but not fair, citing use of state resources and limits on opposition campaigning.
Rate cut. The Bank of Zambia cut its policy rate by 2.5 points to 10.75% as inflation eased, helped by lower maize prices and a firmer kwacha.
New IMF deal. IMF staff and the government agreed a three-year, $1.47 billion Extended Credit Facility on 9 October. The IMF Board still has to approve it, expected around December. Compare inflation across Africa.
What could the kwacha, the next IMF review and the 2027 power outlook mean for your sector, your costs and your timeline?
We track prices, the currency and consumer sentiment from official releases, field contacts and our own polling. The exposure depends on what you sell, where and to whom, so we answer it on a call.
A young, fast growing and increasingly urban market. Zambia has about 22 million people, four in ten are under 15, and 46% live in towns and cities, mostly along the Lusaka and Copperbelt corridor. Households spent about $12.2 billion in 2024. Banking reach has jumped: 73% of adults had an account in 2024, up from 49% in 2021, though only about one in six people use the internet. The labour force is about 8 million, and unemployment on the ILO measure is about 6%.
Zambia sets minimum wages by occupation, and mining wages sit well above the rest of the economy. See minimum wage in Zambia. Only about 3% of adults over 25 hold a degree, so mines, banks and factories train much of their own technical staff. See education in Zambia and unemployment across Africa.
English is the official language and the language of business and law. Bemba, Nyanja, Tonga and Lozi are widely spoken.
Zambia suits two kinds of investor. One serves the mines: contractors, equipment, power, logistics, engineering and services on the Copperbelt and in the North-Western province. The other serves a small but fast growing urban consumer base in Lusaka, Kitwe and Ndola, where the opportunities are in food, finance, retail and building materials. Spending power is concentrated in Lusaka and the Copperbelt, and the countryside is poor and thinly served.
Who exactly buys in your category, in which towns, and at what price?
We answer this with our own survey panel and field interviews across Zambia's provinces.
UNCTAD counted about $1.3 billion of inflows in 2025, down from about $2.4 billion in 2024. The 2024 figure was lifted by mining deals and reinvested profits as copper prices rose. Most of the money goes into mining and the services around it, with growing amounts in energy, manufacturing and agriculture.
Canada is first because two of the largest copper mines are Canadian: First Quantum Minerals runs Kansanshi and Sentinel, and Barrick, which is headquartered in Toronto, runs Lumwana. The British Virgin Islands is a holding route, not a source of business: owners use it to hold mining and other assets, so the real investors behind that number are not shown. See who invests in Africa.
China is a long-standing investor in copper smelting, mines and industrial zones. The UAE comes in through IRH, which took over Mopani Copper Mines. Vedanta of India and KoBold Metals of the United States are also large but are not high on this list, which counts stock at the end of 2024.
Which foreign operators are already active in your sector, and who has entered or left in the last two years?
We map competitors, recent entrants and exits by sector and region. That list is part of every market-entry brief.
Zambia's tools are Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) incentives for larger projects, multi-facility economic zones, a 10% tax rate for farming, and a mining regime built on a sliding royalty. The standard corporate tax rate is 30%, VAT is 16%, and since January 2026 a 1% minimum tax on turnover applies even to loss-making firms. Mining companies pay a royalty that rises from 4% to 10% of the norm value of copper as the price climbs. Most sectors are open to 100% foreign ownership, with a few reserved or capped.
| Programme | What it offers | Who runs it |
|---|---|---|
| ZDA fiscal incentives | For investments of at least US$500,000 in a zone, industrial park, priority sector or rural enterprise: 0% import duty on capital equipment and five years of accelerated depreciation. Some legal commentary says the threshold for foreign-owned companies is now US$1 million, so confirm with the ZDA. | Zambia Development Agency |
| ZDA non-fiscal incentives | For investments of at least US$250,000: protection against nationalisation, and free help with immigration permits, licences, land and utilities. | Zambia Development Agency |
| Farming | Corporate income tax of 10% on farming income, against 30% as standard. | Zambia Revenue Authority |
| Public private partnerships | A 15% rate on profits for the first five years for special purpose vehicles in approved PPP projects. | Zambia Revenue Authority |
| Mining tax regime | Corporate tax of 30%, plus a royalty on copper of 4% below $4,000 a tonne, 6.5% from $4,000, 8.5% from $5,000 and 10% from $7,000, now deductible against tax. Other base metals pay 5%, cobalt 8% and precious metals 6%. A 10% export duty on copper concentrate has been suspended and extended, with the latest waiver due to end on 30 September 2026. | Ministry of Mines and Zambia Revenue Authority |
| Market access | Membership of COMESA, the Southern African Development Community and the African Continental Free Trade Area, giving access to a combined market of several hundred million people. | Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry |
| Zone | Where | Best known for |
|---|---|---|
| Lusaka South MFEZ | South of Lusaka | The most established zone: ceramics, steel, milk, starch, copper rods, cables and pharmaceuticals |
| Chambishi MFEZ (ZCCZ) | Kalulushi, Copperbelt | Chinese-developed zone for copper smelting and processing next to the mines |
| Jiangxi MFEZ | Chibombo, Central Province | Battery production and recycling, and copper cable manufacturing |
| Kalumbila Town MFEZ | North-Western Province | Zone and town next to the Sentinel mine |
| Luano Industrial Park | Ndola, Copperbelt | Industrial park in the Copperbelt's second city |
| New zones: Mukuni, Monze, Golden Baobab | Kazungula, Monze and Kafue | Recently declared zones, still being built |
Which zone, incentive threshold and royalty assumption fit your project, and what is the package worth over ten years?
The answer depends on your sector, location, copper price scenario and how you bring in capital. We run the numbers with you before you choose a structure.
Zambia is a stable, peaceful country, and it has changed governments through the ballot box. But the disputed tone of the 2026 election, a fragile power system and a history of changing mining rules are real. The country has not had a coup or a civil conflict. In practice, these are the problems investors raise most, and what they do about them.
| Roadblock | How serious | What it looks like | What investors do |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power supply | High | Nearly all electricity comes from hydropower. In 2024 drought cut Kariba to about 13% usable storage and cut mine output. Storage has recovered to about 33% on 2 November 2026, but the river authority has cut the 2027 allocation by a third to 23 billion cubic metres, and a former energy minister has warned of load shedding in 2027. | Plan for backup and solar on site, sign power purchase agreements early, and size operations for rationing in dry years. ZESCO said in June 2026 that nationwide load shedding was not expected. |
| Changing mining rules | High | Royalties have moved up and down since 2015, a 10% export duty on copper concentrate has been suspended and extended repeatedly, and the president has warned miners that unused licences will be taken back. | Model several royalty and duty scenarios, develop licences quickly, and negotiate stability terms where the law allows. |
| Debt | Medium | The restructuring covers most external debt, but talks with some creditors such as Afreximbank are still being finalised. The IMF still rates Zambia at high risk of debt distress. Government spending cuts and arrears affect contractors. | Watch the IMF Board decision, insure payment risk on government contracts, and use development bank cover. |
| Currency and prices | Medium | The kwacha has ranged from about 17 to 23.5 per dollar in the past year and averaged 26 in 2024. Inflation is 6.3% but rose in October as fuel excise duty came back. | Earn some revenue in dollars, price contracts with currency clauses, and keep local borrowing small. Policy rate is 10.75%. |
| Logistics | Medium | Zambia is landlocked. Copper goes by road to Durban, Dar es Salaam and Walvis Bay. The TAZARA rail rebuild and the Lobito corridor are plans, not working lines yet. | Budget for longer lead times, and diversify across routes. |
| Governance and politics | Medium | The 2026 election was won by the president with about 60% of the vote, but opposition leaders were arrested and observers said the vote was not fair. Corruption cases and the rule of law remain worries. Compare safety across Africa. | Do business with clear contracts, local counsel, and a political risk policy for large projects. |
Which province and site suit a project like yours, and how exposed are they to the power and policy risks?
Regions differ in power, rail access, land and labour. We compare shortlisted options side by side for your sector and update the risk picture as it changes.
Most foreign investors follow the same sequence. Company registration is quick, and the longer steps are the investment licence, land, permits and, for miners, a mining licence.
Foreign investment is allowed in most sectors. A few are reserved or capped: artisanal mining is for citizens, and insurers must have at least 30% citizen ownership, and insurance brokers 51%. Check the ZDA list before you commit.
Most foreign investors set up a private limited company. A branch of a foreign company is also possible.
Apply to the Patents and Companies Registration Agency (PACRA) for the certificate of incorporation. It can be done online.
The licence is not needed to trade, but you need it for the incentives. Check the current threshold with the ZDA, which lists US$500,000 for fiscal incentives.
Get a taxpayer identification number from the Zambia Revenue Authority, and register for corporate tax at 30% and VAT at 16%.
Foreign employees need work permits from the Department of Immigration. The ZDA helps investors above the incentive threshold at no charge.
Land is held on lease. Mining and exploration need licences from the Mining Cadastre. Many industrial projects also need an environmental clearance from the Zambia Environmental Management Agency, and a power connection from ZESCO.
The capital, banks, embassies, most of the consumer market, and the Lusaka South zone.
The Copperbelt hubs for mine services, engineering, smelting and the Chambishi zone.
The North-Western province, home to Kansanshi, Sentinel and Lumwana, and the fastest growing mining region.
On the Congolese border on the Copperbelt, where KoBold Metals is building the Mingomba mine.
Tourism around Victoria Falls, and a gateway to Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe.
Manufacturing and zone sites close to Lusaka, including the Jiangxi zone.
How long does each step take in practice, what does it cost, and which steps can run at the same time?
Timelines depend on the sector, the province and how you bring in capital. We give you a realistic plan for yours.
The strongest cases build on copper, farmland, a young population and the effort to fix power and transport. These six stand out in the data.
New mines, expansions and a push for more local content create work for contractors, equipment suppliers, engineers and power companies. See the deep dive below.
Held back: which projects are funded and hiring suppliers, and which local partners meet the content rules.
Hydropower covers most of the grid, and drought has shown the limit. Solar and imports through the regional power pool are filling the gap, and mines are buying their own supply.
Held back: which projects have power deals and grid access, and where the buyers are.
Zambia has land and water, farming is taxed lightly, and the economy grew faster in 2025 as the harvest recovered. Maize, soya, sugar, wheat and horticulture lead.
Held back: which crops and regions have the yields and the export rules.
Copper rods and cables, steel, ceramics, batteries and medicines are made in the Lusaka South, Jiangxi and Chambishi zones for Zambia and the region.
Held back: which export buyers will order from Zambia and the real cost per unit.
Moving copper out is the bottleneck. Warehousing, trucking, border services and rail equipment all stand to gain if the lines are built.
Held back: which parts of the build-out and the transport market need partners.
Mobile money, small business lending, insurance and payments are growing from a low base in a country with more mobile subscriptions than people.
Held back: which licences are realistic, and which banks and operators are open to a partner.
Zambia produced about 890,000 tonnes in 2025 and wants 3 million tonnes a year by 2031. Output has grown but slowly: the first half of 2026 was almost flat. The target rests on new and expanding mines. Barrick is spending about $2 billion to double Lumwana to 240,000 tonnes a year, with first copper from the expansion due at the end of the first quarter of 2028. First Quantum declared commercial production at its $1.2 billion S3 expansion at Kansanshi in December 2025 and guides to 175,000 to 205,000 tonnes there this year, rising to 230,000 to 260,000 by 2028. KoBold Metals broke ground on the $2.3 billion Mingomba mine on 29 April 2026, with ZCCM-IH holding 20%, targeting over 300,000 tonnes a year.
The state-linked mines are recovering. Konkola Copper Mines, run by Vedanta's new CopperTech Metals unit with ZCCM-IH holding 20.6%, produced 80,215 tonnes in 2025, four times the year before, and Vedanta plans to invest another $1.5 billion to reach 300,000 tonnes by 2031. Mopani, owned 51% by Abu Dhabi's IRH and 49% by ZCCM-IH, produced 66,369 tonnes in 2025 and aims for 300,000 by 2029. Smaller entrants such as Sinomine's Kitumba mine began trial production in September 2026.
Works: copper at high prices, a government that wants more mines, big balance sheets behind Barrick, First Quantum and KoBold, and the revival of Konkola and Mopani. Power: Kariba storage recovered from 9% a year ago to about 33% on 2 November 2026, and ZESCO has ruled out a return to nationwide load shedding for now. Transport: TAZARA, the line to Dar es Salaam, has a $1.4 billion, 30 year concession to China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation, with a three year rebuild. The board said on 13 October 2026 that conditions must still be met before it takes full effect. The Lobito corridor to the Angolan coast has no Zambian track yet: the Africa Finance Corporation has named a Webuild-led group for the 830 km greenfield line from Chingola, the African Development Bank approved $255 million, and financial close is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027.
Sinks it: the 1 million tonne goal for 2026 now needs about 553,000 tonnes in the second half, and the 3 million target needs more than all known projects can supply, since analysts cited in the press put output nearer 1.5 to 1.8 million tonnes. Power is the second threat: the river authority cut the 2027 Kariba allocation by 13 billion cubic metres. Policy is the third: the 10% concentrate export duty, a licence hoarding crackdown, and the KCM and Mopani disputes with the state. IRH and ZCCM-IH settled a funding dispute on 16 October 2026 but left funding questions open.
Which suppliers, contractors and power projects are being awarded work on each mine, and what are they worth?
We map projects, capex timing, buyers and local partners, and size the market in your segment. That is the core of a sector brief.
China has been in Zambia's copper industry since the late 1990s and is its largest bilateral creditor. China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group (CNMC) developed the Chambishi zone and runs mines on the Copperbelt, Jiangxi Copper holds about 18.5% of First Quantum and buys copper from Kansanshi, and Sinomine began trial production at its $560 million Kitumba mine in September 2026. China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) holds the $1.4 billion, 30 year concession for TAZARA, and the Chinese Mining Enterprises Association said in early 2025 that members planned a further $5 billion over five years, which is a plan, not money spent. Chinese miners also carry risk: a tailings dam failure at Sino-Metals Leach in February 2025 halted production there.
What Chinese investors ask us most is practical: how the mineral royalty and export duty will change, how to secure power for a smelter, how to work with ZCCM-IH, and which Zambian partners and suppliers can be trusted. These are the questions our research team answers.
Is there room for your product, at your price, and who should you partner with?
We size the market, test prices with real buyers through our survey panel, and vet local partners before you sign anything.
Yes, in most sectors. Foreign investment is allowed in all sectors except those the Zambia Development Agency lists as prohibited or capped: artisanal mining is for citizens only, and insurers need at least 30% citizen ownership and insurance brokers 51%. A foreign investor does not need a ZDA licence to register a company, but incentives need one, with a threshold the ZDA lists at US$500,000 and some commentary puts at US$1 million for foreign-owned firms.
For copper and mine services, the case is strong. GDP grew 5.4% in 2025 and 7.2% in the second quarter of 2026, inflation is 6.3%, the policy rate is 10.75%, and the IMF agreed a new $1.47 billion programme in October. The main risks are power in 2027, changes to mining taxes and export duties, and an unfinished debt restructuring. FDI was about $1.3 billion in 2025.
Zambia has been peaceful since independence and has changed governments by election. The August 2026 election was won by President Hichilema with about 60% of the vote, but observers said it was not fair and some opposition leaders were arrested. Most investors work in Lusaka, the Copperbelt and the North-Western province without security problems, and buy political risk cover for large projects.
The standard rate is 30%, 35% in telecoms and 10% for farming income. Since January 2026 a 1% minimum tax applies to turnover, and interest deductions are capped at 30% of EBITDA. Mining companies pay 30% plus a royalty on copper of 4% to 10%, depending on the copper price. VAT is 16%.
For copper the rate is 4% of norm value when the norm price is under $4,000 a tonne, 6.5% from $4,000, 8.5% from $5,000 and 10% from $7,000. Other base metals pay 5%, cobalt 8% and precious metals 6%. Royalties are deductible for income tax. These rates apply from January 2023 and, so far as we found, did not change in the 2026 budget.
About 890,346 tonnes in 2025, up 8% from 825,513 tonnes in 2024, and short of a 1 million tonne goal. The first half of 2026 was 447,182 tonnes, up 0.45%. The government wants 3 million tonnes a year by 2031, which most analysts see as out of reach on current projects.
Mostly. Zambia reached a deal with Eurobond holders in 2024, signed five bilateral agreements with official creditors by January 2026, and bought back its $1.36 billion 2053 bond in June 2026. Talks with some commercial lenders such as Afreximbank are still being finalised, and the IMF still rates the risk of debt distress as high. A new IMF programme was agreed at staff level on 9 October 2026.
Yes. Companies can send dividends, interest and fees abroad through banks after paying withholding tax. The usual rate for non-residents is 20% on dividends, interest and royalties, with lower rates under some tax treaties. Keep proof of the capital you brought in and your tax clearances.
They are called multi-facility economic zones and industrial parks. The best known are Lusaka South, Chambishi in Kalulushi, Jiangxi in Chibombo, Kalumbila Town and Luano in Ndola. Investors in a zone with at least US$500,000 qualify for 0% import duty on capital equipment and five years of accelerated depreciation, and the zones also offer waivers on some customs and VAT charges.
The strongest cases are copper and mining services, power and solar, farming and agro-processing, manufacturing in the zones, rail and logistics, and finance and fintech. Mining attracts most of the money, and power and transport decide how fast it can grow.
Public data gets you to a shortlist. The decision needs answers specific to your product, your budget and your timeline. These are the questions we answer for investors on a first call:
Prefer email? Write to investors@pollsafrica.com.
Every figure on this page comes from an official statistics office, an international body, a company filing, or a report that cites one. Dates show when each figure was published or last updated. Mining rules, the power outlook and debt talks change often, so check current terms before you commit. This page is general information about Zambia's economy and is not investment, legal, tax or security advice.